Perspectives pour le quatrième trimestre
Triodos Investment Management vient de publier ses perspectives pour le quatrième trimestre concernant les économies développées et émergentes.
La zone euro se dirige vers la récession
Quant aux économies développées, Joeri de Wilde, stratège en investissement, est assez pessimiste pour le Royaume-Uni et la zone euro. Le Royaume-Uni est en récession depuis le troisième trimestre et la zone euro se dirige vers une récession au quatrième trimestre. Quant à la politique monétaire, il s'attend à ce que la BCE maintienne des taux inférieurs à ce que le marché a déjà prévu.
“The evolvement of private consumption remains key for the prospects of the major advanced economies. Therefore, real household disposable income and the willingness to spend excess savings will decide their economic faith. The main factors determining real household disposable income are inflation, labour market dynamics, and fiscal policy.
Combined, these factors point to continued near-term private consumption resilience in the US and Japan, while deteriorating real household disposable income should lower private consumption in the UK and the eurozone. We expect that these effects have already pushed the UK into recessionary territory in Q3 and that the eurozone will follow suit in the final quarter of the year. Uncertainty due to the gloomy outlook will likely prevent European households from dipping deep into their excess savings to compensate for the loss in purchasing power.
These factors also determine our monetary policy expectations: in the US, the combination of above-target inflation, a red-hot labour market and near-term growth resilience implies continued aggressive tightening, in line with current market expectations. However, while we expect the European Central Bank and the Bank of England (BoE) to also continue with their tightening efforts, our call is for lower peak policy interest rates than markets have priced in. We expect European central bankers to increasingly focus on growth concerns and financial stability. That said, the latest inflationary fiscal plans in the UK may force the BoE to be more aggressive. Overall, our expectations for rising interest rates, slowing demand, and continued uncertainty (inflation, war) also do not bode well for private investments and international trade.”
Lire : Advanced Economies Q4 2022 Outlook: Recession fears and wellbeing challenges
Pays émergents : la menace du dollar à la hausse
Les économies émergentes sont aux prises avec des problèmes d'inflation similaires à ceux des pays développés, explique Maritza Cabezas Ludena, stratégiste en investissement, mais la situation est très diverse. En outre, elle voit une rotation de la croissance mondiale. La hausse du taux de change du dollar augmente le risque de récession dans les économies émergentes. Pour cette raison, Triodos Investment Management a revu à la baisse son scénario de base pour les économies émergentes.
“There is a lot of divergence across countries and a growth rotation is taking place. The US, China and India continue to support a modest lift in global growth this year, while Europe is flirting with a recession. In fact, India has overtaken the UK as the world’s fifth largest economy. Although China is still dealing with the COVID drag and a fragile property market, it is showing an improvement in economic activity in the past couple of months. Additionally, China’s authorities have room for additional support given the low inflation levels.
Many commodity exporters, including Indonesia and Malaysia, have fared well in the first half of 2022, and have reported stronger growth and lower inflation levels than other emerging economies. However, the smaller commodity importing countries, including Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, that were already contracting and had difficulty tackling inflation before the war are facing deep recessions and double-digit inflation.
If the war in Ukraine does not take a new dimension, global inflation should start easing over the next twelve months on the back of monetary tightening. And this is necessary because high inflation exacerbates primarily the wellbeing of those living in poverty or on the brink of poverty.
Our baseline scenario for emerging markets remains that of low GDP growth and inflation slowly falling in the coming quarters. Average inflation will remain above central banks’ targets in the near-term, assuming that monetary tightening and complementary measures will be sufficient to tame inflation. Recurrent rate hikes in advanced economies will likely limit global demand and trade. As demand declines, food and energy prices will gradually come down again. And although an energy crisis continues to loom in the near-term, countries are finding alternative solutions in new markets and measures, including price caps, to reduce the surging energy prices.
However, the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes have increased recession fears. A flight to safety has already strengthened the US dollar index with its major trading partners by 20% since the start of the year. Consequently, an overwhelming number of emerging market currencies have depreciated against the US dollar. This has resulted in higher import prices, stronger inflation pressures, and higher debt burdens as central banks that support their currencies through interventions are occasionally forced to deplete their international reserves.
These developments have increased the downside risks to our base scenario. The potential for policy mistakes is large and there are strong limits to the relief governments and central banks can provide in stressed financial markets. If the credibility of central banks to fix inflation is lost, this will, only make the dollar stronger and the pain for emerging markets larger.”
Lire : Emerging Markets Q4 2022 Outlook : Building in a new era of risks
